Vitalik Buterin Says These Layer-2 Networks Will Fail

L2s facilitate more efficient and flexible delegation of data processing tasks in support architecture. As a result, the core blockchain protocol does not experience congestion, making scalability possible.

Vitalik Buterin stated that he would only recognize Layer-2 (L2) networks that reach “stage 1+” maturity, offering a limited opportunity for “new genuinely interesting projects.” This ultimatum aligns with Buterin's vision of advancing cryptographic trust, marking a new era in blockchain development.

The stages refer to a framework for assessing the maturity of Layer-2 (L2) rollups, based on milestones proposed by Buterin. In Stage 0, the rollup is fully controlled by its operators, which is referred to as having “full training wheels.”

Stage 1 introduces smart contract governance, though a Security Council remains in place to handle potential bugs, marking “limited training wheels.” Finally, in Stage 2, the rollup is fully governed by smart contracts with a permissionless fraud-proof system, achieving “zero training wheels.” This progression reflects increasing decentralization and security.

“Stage 1 (75% threshold on the council to override the proof system, 26%+ of the council must be outside the rollup team) is a very reasonable moderate milestone. The multisigs I am in have not had a single liveness failure in years, let alone 26%. The era of rollups being glorified multisigs is ending. The era of cryptographic trust is upon us,” Buterin explained.

L2Beat, an analytics and research website focused on Ethereum layer-2 scaling, lists several rollups that have reached Stage 1 or higher. These include Arbitrum, OP Mainnet, dYdX v3, and Zksync Lite, all of which are in Stage 1. Meanwhile, Stage 2 rollups, which have achieved full decentralization with “zero training wheels,” include DeGate V1 and Fuel V1.

Meanwhile, Base, Blast, Scroll, Zksync Era, Linea, and Starknet remain in the Stage 0 threshold. These rollups may face challenges unless they are among the select few to progress further. According to Buterin, they could meet the necessary threshold by December.

“Multiple ZK-rollup teams have told me they're on track to be stage 1 by year-end. I'm excited to see that happen,” Buterin noted.

As a side note, Buterin addressed concerns regarding his recent Ethereum transactions. On September 11, he sold 190 ETH, valued at $441,971.

“That sale from yesterday (by a bio-defense group I fund) was triggered by an automatic cowswap twap order that was set up way back on Aug 29. That was the last one,” he explained.

Lookonchain reported that over the past two weeks, Buterin sold a total of 950 ETH, worth approximately $2.27 million. Additionally, he deposited 2,851 ETH, valued at $6.73 million, into the Aave lending market.

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