QCP Capital analysts remain hopeful for a bullish “Uptober” rally, contingent on bitcoin holding above the $60,000 support level.
“U.S. equities indices have rallied, with the S&P 500 notching a new high, although the same level of optimism has yet to be seen in crypto, but we remain hopeful of an ‘Uptober' rally as long as the $60,000 key support level remains intact,” QCP Capital analysts said.
As of early trading on Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.5% and the S&P 500 climbed 0.3%. The bitcoin price has also increased by a modest 2% to hover above the $62,000 mark, with the global cryptocurrency market cap at $2.27 trillion, reflecting a 1% increase over the past 24 hours.
The equity gains come after mixed producer price index (PPI) data on Friday still seem to support expectations for a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in November. The CME FedWatch tool now indicates a 85.9% probability of such a cut at the next Federal Open Market Committee Meeting. Recent data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics indicated a core PPI increase of 2.8% annually, slightly exceeding the anticipated 2.7%.
QCP Capital analysts stated, “Friday's PPI data is a key risk event this week.” They stressed the importance of these metrics in evaluating the strength of the U.S. economy amid cooling inflation.
Bitcoin futures funding rates remain stable over the past week
In a separate report, Coinbase analysts David Duong and David Han said that despite bitcoin's sluggish price action this week, “the market sentiment remains relatively unchanged, as evidenced by the stable perpetual funding rate and open interest over the past week.”
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The bitcoin open-interest weighted perpetual futures funding rate is currently +0.0049%, according to Coinglass data, meaning that long positions are still paying out to short positions, indicating a bullish sentiment in the market.
The Coinbase analysts highlighted that the macroeconomic factors influencing crypto performance are shifting focus from monetary policy to U.S. election outcomes, as expectations for rate cuts remain largely stable despite the recent uptick in headline CPI and core PPI.
They also noted that China's fiscal policy briefing this Saturday could indirectly affect crypto markets, especially during a time when many markets will be closed.
“Crypto markets could be used as a way to express proxy views on the size and strength of any fiscal announcements,” they said.